2011 was a momentous year for the financial world, but what will 2012 bring?
This year has seen the eurozone crisis spiralling out of control, fears of a global recession growing deeper and consumers keeping their hands firmly in their pockets. So 2011 was not exactly a golden time for stock market investors and it is no surprise that a volatile 12 months saw the FTSE 100 lose 6.5%.
Unfortunately the Guardian's selection of share tips for the year came nowhere near matching the market's performance, losing 20% in total.
The standout performer was Real Good Food up 56%. At one stage the sugar distributor, cake maker and bakery ingredients specialist had tripled in value ? a good point to take some profits, which many investors clearly decided to do.
Solid businesses such as BG and Compass also held their own. But we were rather too reliant on retail, not the best call as household spending became increasingly squeezed and the government embarked on its austerity drive and slashed public sector jobs. SuperGroup and Dixons Retail fell sharply while HMV, acknowledged at the time as a risky pick, added some problems of its own to the general sector malaise.
And 2012 doesn't look as if it will be much better, with the continuing prospect of the eurozone collapsing, a large amount of sovereign debt to be refinanced early in the year, China's economy perhaps facing a hard landing and austerity drives continuing to bite.
Despite this, we are sticking our necks out once more with 10 more shares we hope will outperform. The only rule was no retailers. Well, maybe just a couple.
Zoe Wood
The Olympics and Mike Ashley's mega new bonus scheme means 2012 holds the promise of glory for Sports Direct International, 206.4p. The retailer's pile-it-high sell-it-cheap sales pitch is not glamorous but it is in keeping with the consumer mood and will offer a cheap way for Britons to jump on the sports bandwagon. Investors who bought into Sports Direct at the time of the IPO are still under water with shares trading at around 200p versus their 300p debut in 2007. But Ashley likes nothing more than a bet: the new bonus scheme means hitting profit targets for four years but with skin in the game you can be certain he will pull out the stops.
Julia Finch
All around Kingfisher ? the group behind B&Q and Castorama in France ? rivals are struggling as consumers resist big-ticket spending on their homes and fierce discounting cuts into margins. But Kingfisher, Europe's biggest DIY business, is looking remarkably healthy. It delivered strong third quarter numbers this month, with group operating profit up 14% ahead of expectations. Britain is benefiting from strong cost control while DIY is proving one of the most resistant areas in the gloomy French retail sector. Kingfisher, 246p, also has one of the most highly regarded management teams in the retail business, a strong balance sheet and yields more than 3%.
Terry Macalister
British engineering is not the most fashionable brand around and there will be no fireworks here but Amec, 902.5p, is a genuine force in oil and gas services. The company has amassed a substantial cash pile and has been using it with neat, targeted acquisitions. Meanwhile despite the economic gloom, crude prices remain strong and developers continue to spend heavily. Amec, whose shares are cheaper than its peers, is well poised to benefit whether in the North Sea or further afield. Samir Brikho, the Lebanese-born chief executive, is a man with a mission and he has built up a �3.3bn order book that should continue to grow.
Nick Fletcher
Aim listing mining group Mariana Resources has a number of gold and silver projects in Argentina and Chile, and recent drilling results from its Sierra Blanca site have been encouraging. AngloGold Ashanti recently showed confidence in Mariana by paying 12p a share to take a 19.9% interest, with the cash helping to fund the company's drilling programme for the next 12 months or so. This news prompted analysts at Fox Davies to put a 22p target on the shares, currently 10p. There is plenty of scope for consolidation among mining companies in the region, and in the long term Mariana may look at selling some of its projects, seek further partnerships with major mining groups or agree to a takeover.
Julia Kollewe
Last month Sphere Medical, 77.5p, became the second Cambridge company to debut on Aim this year, with a market value of �34m. It has used micro-electronic technology to miniaturise a $30,000 (�19,000) bench-top blood gas analyser into a disposable biosensor that provides near real-time blood gas analysis at the patient's bedside, allowing more frequent, cost-effective testing. The technology has been developed in collaboration with Europe's largest intensive care unit in Birmingham, and achieved an important milestone in its commercialisation just before Christmas. Broker Peel Hunt expects the firm to break even in 2014. Its lead product shows a lot of promise, so we are tipping the shares, which have fallen to 73p since floating at 92.5p on 17 November.
Simon Bowers
It is likely to be another tough year for leisure companies that rely heavily on discretionary consumer spending. Pub groups in particular have suffered. That said, there are some signs the picture may be stabilising for some more resilient players, with well-placed operators being those with strong value-for-money and food offerings. Marston's pub restaurant expansion has shown early promise, generating strong returns. The average spend here is �6.10. Meanwhile, a new franchising model ? somewhere between managed houses and tenancies ? is also providing a boost. Both these initiatives should continue to help group earnings for 2012, making Marston's ? 90.5p ? a stand-out stock in a very tough sector.
Rupert Neate
After four profits warnings in a year, surely things cannot get much worse for Pace, 71.5p. On the plus side the company's disastrous year allows you to pick up the stock at less than half the price it was this time last year. Back then the Yorkshire-based set-top box maker was a stock market darling, and most of its underlying potential is still there (albeit a little more underlying). Pace makes set-top boxes for most of the world's biggest satellite and digital TV providers, including BT and Virgin Media. As TVs get cleverer (think HD, 3D etc) Pace can charge more for its boxes, and it has plans to help integrate TVs and other household items with the internet. Also history shows that consumer spending on pay-TV subscriptions actually increases in difficult times, so if Eurogeddon does happen Pace should be better placed than most as people would rather forgo nights out on the town than access to the Premier League or the latest movies. The analysts seem to have faith in new boss Mike Pulli, who, as president of Pace America ,expanded its US customer base.
Jill Treanor
2011 was not a pretty year for Man Group when the hedge fund suffered a painful fall in shares following a weak performance at its main fund, AHL, and an outflow of funds in the fourth quarter. As the disastrous year drew to a close its house broker, Merrill Lynch, downgraded its forecasts for 2012 because it expects the crucial performance fees from AHL to be down, though redemptions from the group's funds should slow. It is clearly a risky bet but if ? and it is a big if ? the markets recover their composure on a lasting solution to the eurozone crisis, some in the City reckon that Man, 127.9p, could be one of the big beneficiaries.
Richard Wachman
Vodafone's shares at 176.3p are relatively cheap and offer defensive qualities at a time when much of the developed world faces recession amid continuing turbulence in the eurozone. The company earns more than half its revenue in emerging markets and the US and less than half from Britain and Europe. The shares yield around 7% so if you can withstand some stock price volatility and hold on to your investment through 2012, and perhaps beyond, you could do well, providing dividends are reinvested. Vodafone has tidied up its sprawling global portfolio, while its Verizon joint venture in the US is poised to pay a dividend for the first time in seven years, with the promise of more to come. All in all, not a bad bet.
Juliette Garside
Peter Dubens, chair of telecoms reseller Daisy Group, is a master of the buy and build. He corralled 14 businesses into Pipex broadband before selling it to Tiscali, and built bookmaker 365 Media Group in the same way before cashing out to BSkyB. The unsold remains of Pipex were merged in 2009 with Daisy, whose founder Matthew Riley still runs the company. After 35 acquisitions, Daisy is the leading provider of communications bundles ? mobiles, landlines, broadband, servers ? to mid-sized British businesses. It acts as a wholesaler for BT Group, Cable & Wireless and Vodafone. The company listed on Aim in July 2009. Its share price had risen by around 30% to an average of 125.5p this July before markets crashed. The stock now looks cheap at 95.5p. Jefferies bank has a target of 145p, believing Daisy can fatten margins by selling more products to existing customers. Faster broadband and more data storage are becoming must haves for Daisy's client base and the economic climate is unlikely to dent that.
2011 HOW WE FARED
End price taken on 23 December
Centrica: start price 331.6, end price 290.3, percentage change -12.45
BG Group: start price 1296, end price 1348.5, percentage change +4
Compass: start price 581, end price 592.5, percentage change +2
Dixons: start price 22.92, end price 9.66, percentage change -57
HMV Group: start price 32, end price 3.25, percentage change -90
Barclays: start price 261.65, end price 179, percentage change -31.5
Promethean World: start price 65.75, end price 58.5, percentage change -11
Real Good Food: start price 24, end price 37.5, percentage change +56
SuperGroup: start price 1297, end price 531, percentage change -59
Hiscox: start price 381.4, end price 372.8, percentage change -2.25
Average loss -20
The FTSE 100 fell from 5899.94 on Jan 4 2011 to 5512.70, a loss of -6.56%
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/27/share-tips-for-2012
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