Wikileaks: March 14 Christians still face internal challenges

7.04.2009: LEBANON: MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS STILL FACE INTERNAL CHALLENGESC O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 000445 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO ACTING A/S WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL, RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR SHAPIRO, MCDERMOTT DOD/OSD FOR FLOURNOY/KAHL/DALTON DRL/NESA FOR WHITMAN, BARGHOUT E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PINR, EG, SY, LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS STILL FACE INTERNAL CHALLENGES REF: A. BEIRUT 434 B. 2008 BEIRUT 1455 C. 2008 BEIRUT 759 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY ------- 1. (C) After several days of negotiations with fellow March 14 Christians Michel Murr and Amine Gemayel on the Metn district, candidate Nassib Lahoud pulled out of the race on April 17, telling Ambassador that his two fellow coalition leaders had not "given him what he needed" to contest the election. Lahoud also reported that President Sleiman had (unsuccessfully) tried to change Lahoud�s mind. Meanwhile, Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea assured us that the March 14 alliance is close to finalizing its candidate lists for the June 7 parliamentary elections. Pointing out that differences between his party and Amine Gemayel�s Kataeb party have been entirely resolved ("at LF�s expense"), Geagea said that March 14�s prospects were good in Batroun, Koura, and Metn districts, but it faced challenges in Keserwan, Zahle, and Baabda. Praising the firm U.S. policy on Hizballah, Geagea noted that Hizballah was "behaving" in its stronghold Baalbeck, but had violated state sovereignty by sending Hizballah members illegally into Egypt. Looking ahead to the next government, Geagea suggested that March 14 think hard about whether incumbent Speaker Nabih Berri should stay on and also whether prospective candidate Saad Hariri should become the prime minister, arguing that March 14 should condition Berri�s appointment, and could convince March 8 to give up its demand for a blocking third in the cabinet if independent figure Najib Mikati were instead the next PM. End summary. NASSIB LAHOUD ENDS CANDIDACY ---------------------------- 2. (C) In April 14 and 15 conversations with Ambassador, independent Christian March 14 leader Nassib Lahoud complained about fellow Metn Christian leaders Michel Murr and Amine Gemayel, noting that they wished to form candidate lists without input from others such as himself. After several days of negotiations with Murr and Gemayel, Lahoud, a Minister of State in the current government and head of the Democratic Renewal Movement, pulled out of the Metn electoral race on April 17. He told Ambassador on April 17 that President Sleiman had met with him the day before in an effort to persuade him to remain a candidate, but that his frustration with Murr and Gemayel had led him to this decision. Lahoud nonetheless vowed to continue to work for the cause of Lebanon�s democracy. Lahoud also told Ambassador that March 14 needed to improve its messaging on transparency and accountability as Free Patriotic Movement leaders and opposition Christian Michel Aoun has effectively campaigned on this platform, although March 14 embodies the same principles. Lahoud also observed that President Sleiman�s recent comments to the media about strengthening the role of the President in Lebanon stemmed from Sleiman�s desire to counter Aoun�s claims that Sleiman was not "legitimately" elected. Lahoud thought that the time was perhaps not right for Sleiman to raise the issue. MARCH 14 CANDIDATE LISTS "75 PERCENT" COMPLETE ------------------------ 3. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea and his aides Elie Khoury and Joseph Nehme on April 16 at Geagea�s headquarters in Maarab. Ambassador remarked that the Embassy had commemorated earlier in the day the 26th anniversary of the April 18, 1983 Embassy bombing. Geagea recalled that on that day he had been surrounded by the forces of his then enemy, now March 14 political ally, Walid Jumblatt, in the "War of the Mountains" in the village of Deir Qamar in the Chouf. 4. (C) According to Geagea, Jumblatt is firmly in the March 14 camp, but is "hedging his bets." "Like all of us," Geagea said, "Jumblatt feels the consequences of March 14 mismanagement." 5. (C) Noting that the four March 14 leaders (majority leader Saad Hariri, former president and Kataeb leader Amine Gemayel, Jumblatt, and himself) had not met as a group since April 2, Geagea calculated that they have resolved "70 to 80" percent of their disputes in forming the candidates� lists for the June 7 parliamentary elections. All of the conflicts between Kataeb and LF have been resolved, he said, adding "at our expense" under his breath, and now he is meeting with Saad to finalize the list for the northern district Akkar where, he argued, LF has a strong presence. 6. (C) The Ambassador urged Geagea to continue focusing on the big picture for March 14, rather than on individual party gains. Geagea requested that the Ambassador try to convince March 14 member and independent Chouf candidate Ghattas Khoury (Ref A) to withdraw his candidacy because he was competing against the other March 14 candidates. 7. (C) Listing the districts where he expected March 14 to do well -- Batroun, Koura, Metn -- Geagea highlighted Keserwan, Zahle, and Baabda as areas where March 14 faced challenges. He suggested that prominent industrialist and independent figure Nemat Frem, who decided against becoming a candidate himself, could nonetheless play an important role in uniting the competing March 14 and independent candidates in Keserwan by supporting March 14. 8. (C) Geagea said that Baabda was problematic because despite a "respectable March 14 list," the Aounists and Hizballah supporters outnumber March 14 followers. Geagea was fairly confident that Education Minister and MP Bahiya Hariri would retain her seat in Sidon, and PM Fouad Siniora would win the second seat, but warned, "Beware of Sidon." He explained that the local constituency can play a big role in Sidon, pointing out that former PM Rafiq Hariri�s list surprisingly lost in the 2004 municipality elections. He added that Saad still needed to negotiate with Jamaa Islamiya, which felt it lost a seat to Siniora�s candidacy in Sidon, and is hoping Saad will "award" the group with a seat in another district. THOUSANDS OF EXPATS WILL RETURN TO VOTE ------------------- 9. (C) Noting that his wife, MP Setrida Geagea, and LF member and Environment Minister Tony Karam have been encouraging Lebanese expatriates from North America, Europe, and the Gulf to vote in Lebanon, Geagea estimated that thousands will vote, particularly in key districts such as Zgharta, Zahle, and Batroun. He added that there are thousands of Sunni Lebanese living in Syria who would come to vote in the elections, but would likely "be influenced" by the Syrian regime. Geagea privately confided to the Ambassador that March 14 has run out of money. HIZBALLAH INNOCENT IN BAALBECK, STIRRING UP TROUBLE IN EGYPT ------------------------------- 10. (C) Commending the U.S. for its firm policy stance on Hizballah, Geagea suggested that the U.S. refrain from attacking March 8 in the lead-up to the elections, and instead aim to clarify that its position on Hizballah is not linked to the elections. Addressing clashes between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the drug-related criminals in Baalbeck starting April 13, Geagea absolved Hizballah of all blame, commenting that despite its heavy presence in the area, Hizballah is staying out of the conflict. BEIRUT 00000445 003 OF 004 11. (C) Geagea was unconcerned about the Syrian troop buildup along the border, saying that it was in support of the LAF�s action against the drug criminals. (Comment: This is a marked contrast from October 2008, when Geagea feared an imminent Syrian invasion after its troops deployed along the northern Lebanon border to fight smuggling, Ref B. End comment.) 12. (C) However, Geagea said, Hizballah violated Egypt�s state sovereignty by sending Hizballah members illegally into Egypt. Even if they were only intending to help the Palestinians, Geagea assessed, it was wrong. However, Egypt�s threat to arrest Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah and his deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem was "a declaration of war" and would provoke some sort of response from Hizballah, he believed. 13. (C) Geagea wondered whether the Egyptians would ask for the halting of the transmission of Hizballah�s television station al-Manar, which is broadcast by the satellite Nilesat, partially owned by the Egyptian government. (Note: Information Minister Tareq Mitri told the Ambassador that the Egyptian information Minister and the Egyptian ambassador had asked Mitri to shut down al-Manar. Mitri said he responded that al-Manar was broadcast by the Nilesat satellite, partially owned by th Egyptian government. End note.) NOT RIGHT TIM FOR PRESIDENT TO EXPAND HIS POWERS --------------------------- 14. (C) Noting that President Michel Sleiman spoke about strengthening the role of the president, Geagea said Sleiman is "not a leader" and his proposal would not amount to anything because Sleiman would not secure a two-thirds majority in parliament required to amend the constitution. THINKING ABOUT A NEW PM, A NEW SPEAKER ----------------------- 15. (C) Geagea said he anticipated that Sleiman would name the next Interior and Defense ministers because March 8 and March 14 would not be able to agree on which alliance should name these key posts. "Almost everyone is happy with (current Interior Minister Ziad) Baroud and (current Defense Minister Elias) Murr," Geagea said, expecting that both men would stay on in their position. Geagea praised Minister of State Youssef Taqla, who was the third minister named by Sleiman. The time it takes to form a new cabinet will depend on the outcome of the elections, Geagea stated. 16. (C) "We should not assume that (Speaker Nabih) Berri stays on as speaker, or that Saad is the next PM," Geagea said with conviction. At a minimum, he proposed, March 14 should condition acceptance of Berri on certain points, such as requiring that parliament stay open. (Note: Berri refused to convene parliament to elect a president in 2007-08. End note.) 17. (C) Geagea posited that March 14 members needed to discuss at length whether Saad is the best option for the next PM. He pointed out that March 14 could get concessions from March 8, such as no insistence on having a blocking third in the cabinet, if it agreed to name independent figure and former PM Najib Mikati as the next PM. (Comment: Geagea�s hesitation to support Saad�s premiership is not new; in May 2008, he lobbied hard to keep Siniora as PM, instead of Saad -- Ref C. End comment.) COMMENT ------- 18. (C) While we hear conflicting reports on how close March 14 is to finalizing its candidate lists, we do not perceive a sense of urgency on the part of Geagea or the other March 14 leaders. Geagea said that even the April 21 deadline to withdraw candidacy is meant only to enable those who withdraw to obtain the 2,000 USD refund, but candidates could withdraw up until the last minute. We will continue to urge March 14 figures to work for the benefit of the whole team, rather than individual parties or candidates. Nassib Lahoud�s predicamen is not a good development. One of March 14�s mst respected Christian leaders, Lahoud is a former Lebanese Ambassador to the United States and one of the coalition�s most thoughtful members. His decision to pull out of the Metn race bodes ill for March 14�s ability to maintain cohesion among its Christian ranks. End comment. SISON

Source: http://www.tayyar.org/Tayyar/News/PoliticalNews/en-US/129423335433415280.htm

Cobham Motoring Xabi Alonso US healthcare Burlesque Television