Saturday, November 5, 2011

Strictly Come Dancing: can we predict who'll get the boot?

Social media stats show who's hot and who's not in the BBC dance contest. So who will be going home this week

Digital consultancy Reform has created an algorithm using online search and social media data to determine how much online buzz each Strictly Come Dancing competitor is generating. Each week Reform will be predicting which celebrity is going home, and which three will make the final. Last year they managed to predict the winner. Can they get it right this time?

This week's predictions

Finalists: Holly Valance, Jason Donovan, Chelsee Healey
Who's going home: Audley Harrison

Last week we made it two correct predictions in a row as Nancy Dell'Olio finally departed the dance floor. The John Sargeant effect finally came to an end, as our data had shown that while Nancy generated a fair amount of buzz, the content was filled with bile. Another low score on the leader board and she was ripe for being sent home.

This week the outlook is bleak for our sporting dancers Audley Harrison and Robbie Savage. Focusing on the weekend nights when the show is on our screens ? and, crucially, when the voting takes place ? we can see clearly see these two sports stars at the bottom of the pack. When we add the judges' scores for their dance performances to date into our algorithm, we see a week six exit for Audley Harrison.

Again, it's worth noting that Harry Judd also appears to be generating very little noise during the live shows. However, the data belies his excellent dancing and good looks which are keeping him in the show to this point. This could, however, be his downfall in the closing stages of the competition.

At the other end of the scale, Holly Valance is still the pick of the group, and the surge in buzz around Chelsee Healey that we reported last week has continued. In Chelsee's instance, her slight wardrobe malfunction is the dominating theme for discussion, so it will be interesting to see if that dies down after this week's show. Elsewhere, all is still looking rosy for Jason Donovan, Alex Jones and Anita Dobson.


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Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/tv-and-radio/mediamonkeyblog/2011/nov/04/strictly-come-dancing

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